SPC MD 925

Source: spc.noaa.gov · Published: 2026-06-01

MD 0925 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI <![CDATA[<br /><a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0925.html"><img src="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0925.png" border="1" alt="MD 0925 Image" hspace="1" vspace="1" width="815" height="611" align="center" /></a><pre>

Mesoscale Discussion 0925 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 010012Z - 010245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should develop this evening across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These storms will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained discrete storms. A watch will likely be needed at some point this evening.

DISCUSSION...A diffuse outflow boundary is draped from McPherson/Saline Counties in Kansas east to St. Clair/Henry Counties in west-central Missouri and then southeast from there toward the ongoing convection across northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. Extending south/southwest from this boundary is a dryline/wind shift which extends Chase/Marion Counties, KS, through Sedgewick County, KS, into north-central Oklahoma.

Extreme instability has developed along and south of this outflow boundary, and to the east of the dryline/wind shift this afternoon. MLCAPE values in excess of 4500 J/kg are in place across southeast Kansas to the south of the outflow boundary, with 2500-3000 J/kg across far northeast Kansas to its north. Objective analyses indicates midlevel flow on the order of 35-40 knots across much of Kansas, which when combined with southerly to easterly low-level winds results in 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear.

Recent satellite imagery across Kansas has shown an increase in vertical development with the cumulus fields along the dryline/wind shift across Sedgewick County. Recent radar depictions suggest initiation is underway, with lightning now observed. Additional clustering/clumping of the cumulus field is also occuring to the northeast of Sedgewick County, across Butler County. The expectation is that one or both of these areas will develop into sustained thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk of very large hail and strong/gusty thunderstorm outflows. These storms should move north-northeast, with additional thunderstorm development possible on the outflow of these storms.

Recent high-resolution model guidance shows the potential for additional thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary across east-central Kansas or west-central Missouri later this evening. Should this activity develop, very large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible.

Although low-level flow is relative weak, extreme instability in the presence of an outflow boundary may support an isolated tornado threat, particularly with any discrete storm that can sustain itself.

A watch will likely be needed at some point this evening across portions of the highlighted area, although the exact timing and location of a watch remains somewhat uncertain. The area will be monitored closely.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37089753 37659751 38609706 39239655 39629573 39689466 39479427 39139399 38579394 38129420 37539472 37059552 37089753

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

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