SPC MD 1814

Source: spc.noaa.gov · Published: 2026-08-01

MD 1814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS <![CDATA[<br /><a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1814.html"><img src="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1814.png" border="1" alt="MD 1814 Image" hspace="1" vspace="1" width="815" height="611" align="center" /></a><pre>

Mesoscale Discussion 1814 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0851 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010151Z - 010345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts may be maintained into the 11 PM-1 AM CDT time frame across parts of the Texas South Plains. Barring more substantive organization of the thunderstorm activity, a severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to monitored.

DISCUSSION...A notable surface cold pool generated by convection, propagating off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity this afternoon, has continued to gradually strengthen and expand the past few hours. This has become accompanied by 2-6+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises developing across much of northeastern New Mexico, with largest rises centered around Tucumcari at 01Z, and spreading south-southeastward. Strong to severe wind gusts have increased at least a bit on the leading edge of the outflow, and this may persist into/through the 04-06z time frame, particularly across the South Plains around Lubbock, where inflow emanating from a moist boundary layer along and north of a preceding wind shift is likely to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development.

..Kerr/Kerr.. 08/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34800190 33920076 32520077 32490191 32860299 33770379 34160252 34800190

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

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